the jist i'm getting is that there was an inconsistency in their ILS for runway 23, something like that, if the frequency dropped randomly may cause the computer to 'disconnect' in a way, much like removing a cord from your modem, and may just fall as the aircraft is relying on instruments. Who's to even say that that 'blip' may have overloaded the computer, kind of like a short.
but in the end, icing may be the culprit, even though the most reported was 1/4 inch.
.. what i dont get is according to the news it flew in an opposite direction before it crashed.. none of that hypothetical transmissions are on the audio.
flying NORTHBOUND on a South-SW glide path, engines "didn't sound normal", impact with ground at 10:17.. flat landing in a low left turn, aircraft's nose pitch steep angle down.
Just to help ease some of the theories. From a commercial pilots perspective.
Losing the Localiser wouldn't cause any autopilot I know of to "fall". Not to mention that a localiser provides LATERAL guidance, not vertical. Also, losing the ILS signal during the approach should be followed by a missed approach procedure if it was anything more than a minor "bump". But like someone else said a one dot deflection on the localiser is not enough to cause a crash like this.
As far as icing goes Turboprops have sufficient anti-icing capabilities to combat icing conditions. But whose to say they were working properly. Weather is always one of the first things people think of because in a situation like this it's the only thing we know for sure as of yet. And it isn't immediately ruled out since it wasn't a beautiful night with no weather in the area.
I also agree, after reviewing the tape, that a few of the transmissions do sound a little shaky...maybe nerves from a situation onboard... or just turbulent conditions while transmitting.
There are a lot of things that happen in that last 5 or so miles. The aircraft configuration changes, possibly an assymetric flap extension causing the aircraft to roll uncontrollably. Or a sudden power change caused the engine stress that caused a failure. LOTS of possibilities. The point is, unfortunately we'll have to wait for the investigators to do their jobs and everyone in the industry learns from it, if it was a preventable accident.
None of this is meant to disprove anyone or offend. Just trying to clarify from my experience, and add another few possibilities.
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