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Author Topic: Continental (Colgan)-3407 -8 Crash in Buffalo  (Read 232373 times)
mhawke
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« on: February 12, 2009, 11:53:38 PM »

Archive attached, I'll edit later.  20 minutes in lost contact.

I pray for the crew and passengers.

edit:  Added flight number

* KBUF-Feb-13-2009-0300Z.mp3 (3703.25 KB - downloaded 10082 times.)
« Last Edit: February 13, 2009, 12:24:23 PM by mhawke » Logged
delta092b
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2009, 12:07:53 AM »

Thank you for posting quickly. Doesn't look like a good scene on CNN

FYI start listening around 17 mins
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bsmith19
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2009, 12:14:54 AM »

Here is the flightaware:

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frantzy
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2009, 12:23:06 AM »

Freezing rain is nasty stuff

(Edited to smack myself on the hand for speculating: I now see this indication that weather may not have been a factor- 

"County Executive Chris Collins said that there may have been as many as 50 people aboard the plane and crew members had reported mechanical problems as they approached Buffalo Niagara International Airport".  http://www.buffalonews.com/home/story/577959.html

...although correct me if I'm wrong, there's nothing in the audio posted indicating mechanical issue)
« Last Edit: February 13, 2009, 12:28:13 AM by frantzy » Logged
delta092b
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2009, 12:26:15 AM »

Very sad. Other pilots also reporting icing conditions on the approach and around the airport and an aircraft landing after 3407 reported a "blip" in the ILS at about 1300 ft.
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moto400ex
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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2009, 12:33:32 AM »

14 min they are given a heading
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mhawke
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« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2009, 12:43:32 AM »


...although correct me if I'm wrong, there's nothing in the audio posted indicating mechanical issue)

I wondered when I heard that on local news here too.  I hear nothing in the audio.  It pretty much sounds like business as ussual and then nothing.
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frantzy
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« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2009, 12:48:01 AM »


...although correct me if I'm wrong, there's nothing in the audio posted indicating mechanical issue)

I wondered when I heard that on local news here too.  I hear nothing in the audio.  It pretty much sounds like business as ussual and then nothing.


After listening to the rest of the (excellent) audio, I'm going back to the icing theory.  Very sad - after the relief of the Hudson River ditching, this one looks like no survivors.
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ls6camaroa4
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« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2009, 12:50:49 AM »

Fox news is reporting 49 dead.  Now I hate to speculate but since FAA says there was 48 on board, I would assume 1 on the ground was killed (EDIT: Now confirmed by Fox). Very sad news here, especially after the whole Sully "miracle".

Condolences to all the families affected.

« Last Edit: February 13, 2009, 01:04:19 AM by ls6camaroa4 » Logged
kaiserhead
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« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2009, 12:54:39 AM »

15:22 - Last contact with 3407

17:22 - Another plane is asked to keep an eye out for the plane.

20:30 - Fire/police notified.

21:50 - Emergency declared.

24:00 - Dash 8 didn't make the airport.
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Hollis
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« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2009, 12:58:28 AM »

From what I heard, definitely sounds like icing since other a/c reported up to 1/2 inch of rime.
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bsmith19
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2009, 12:58:37 AM »

Here is my edited clip of the events

* 3407.mp3 (380.88 KB - downloaded 4545 times.)
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JesseFSD
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« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2009, 12:58:57 AM »

Aircraft   De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400 (twin-turboprop)


Are turbo props more likely to ice over, then a jet?
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JesseFSD
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« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2009, 01:03:17 AM »

Why at the end do they keep talking about the localiser?
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ls6camaroa4
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« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2009, 01:05:51 AM »

Why at the end do they keep talking about the localiser?

To make sure that everything was operating correctly, if not it could have easily been the cause of the crash and the airport would have then been closed in those bad conditions.
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bsmith19
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« Reply #15 on: February 13, 2009, 01:11:34 AM »

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jrsx
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« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2009, 01:15:09 AM »

Here is my edited clip of the events

not to nit pick but you missed two communications

1. Clearance to the ILS
2. Handoff to tower
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onetwenty
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« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2009, 01:27:58 AM »

the jist i'm getting is that there was an inconsistency in their ILS for runway 23, something like that, if the frequency dropped randomly may cause the computer to 'disconnect' in a way, much like removing a cord from your modem, and may just fall as the aircraft is relying on instruments. Who's to even say that that 'blip' may have overloaded the computer, kind of like a short.
but in the end, icing may be the culprit, even though the most reported was 1/4 inch.
.. what i dont get is according to the news it flew in an opposite direction before it crashed.. none of that hypothetical transmissions are on the audio.

..ive edited the entire orig archive file, not specific to colgan, but to remove the long pauses in comms.

watching news now..

Colgan 3407
44 passengers, 4 crew
another news conference at 4am
one home with one person inside
12 homes evacuated
..
flying NORTHBOUND on a South-SW glide path, engines "didn't sound normal", impact with ground at 10:17.. flat landing in a low left turn, aircraft's nose pitch steep angle down.


* kbuf.mp3 (17871.83 KB - downloaded 3308 times.)
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BWilliams
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« Reply #18 on: February 13, 2009, 01:28:35 AM »

Wow... absolutely terrible.  Very interesting audio ... I'd definately agree with the icing theory based on the total lack of emergency comms.

Although, damn, if only I was currently in Buffalo, instead of out in Rochester here.  Would have liked to go see the scene. Never thought I'd see the day that Buffalo of all places has a major plane crash.
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EivlEvo
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« Reply #19 on: February 13, 2009, 01:46:54 AM »

She sounded a little shaky on her last comm... but nothing that is "abnormal".

They were saying the localizer at 1500ft had a "blip" in it. But it was only deflecting left right 1 notch. This is significant, but not significant enough to put a dash 8 into a house with no communications? Even still, this "blip" was reported at 1500ft and the crash occurred at KLUMP which is the Outer Marker. If they intercepted appropriately, their altitude would be 2206 (or greater if they glided to the crash site). So I doubt the localizer would've played any part in this by itself.

Either way... thoughts and prayers to the necessary places.
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micahw
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« Reply #20 on: February 13, 2009, 01:59:12 AM »

the jist i'm getting is that there was an inconsistency in their ILS for runway 23, something like that, if the frequency dropped randomly may cause the computer to 'disconnect' in a way, much like removing a cord from your modem, and may just fall as the aircraft is relying on instruments. Who's to even say that that 'blip' may have overloaded the computer, kind of like a short.
but in the end, icing may be the culprit, even though the most reported was 1/4 inch.
.. what i dont get is according to the news it flew in an opposite direction before it crashed.. none of that hypothetical transmissions are on the audio.


flying NORTHBOUND on a South-SW glide path, engines "didn't sound normal", impact with ground at 10:17.. flat landing in a low left turn, aircraft's nose pitch steep angle down.



Just to help ease some of the theories. From a commercial pilots perspective.

Losing the Localiser wouldn't cause any autopilot I know of to "fall". Not to mention that a localiser provides LATERAL guidance, not vertical. Also, losing the ILS signal during the approach should be followed by a missed approach procedure if it was anything more than a minor "bump". But like someone else said a one dot deflection on the localiser is not enough to cause a crash like this.

As far as icing goes Turboprops have sufficient anti-icing capabilities to combat icing conditions. But whose to say they were working properly. Weather is always one of the first things people think of because in a situation like this it's the only thing we know for sure as of yet. And it isn't immediately ruled out since it wasn't a beautiful night with no weather in the area.

I also agree, after reviewing the tape, that a few of the transmissions do sound a little shaky...maybe nerves from a situation onboard... or just turbulent conditions while transmitting.

There are a lot of things that happen in that last 5 or so miles. The aircraft configuration changes, possibly an assymetric flap extension causing the aircraft to roll uncontrollably. Or a sudden power change caused the engine stress that caused a failure. LOTS of possibilities. The point is, unfortunately we'll have to wait for the investigators to do their jobs and everyone in the industry learns from it, if it was a preventable accident.

None of this is meant to disprove anyone or offend. Just trying to clarify from my experience, and add another few possibilities.

« Last Edit: February 13, 2009, 02:03:22 AM by micahw » Logged
KJET100
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« Reply #21 on: February 13, 2009, 02:03:24 AM »

Ice. The Dash 8 is bad in Ice.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2009, 02:09:34 AM by KJET100 » Logged
Duffy
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« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2009, 02:11:38 AM »

Here's the edit, from first contact with approach...through to the tower, and then approach talking to the next Colgan Dash 8 warning him of the company crash.

* Final-Colgan3407.mp3 (3282.28 KB - downloaded 7544 times.)
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tampagrl0518
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« Reply #23 on: February 13, 2009, 02:39:48 AM »

15:22 - Last contact with 3407

17:22 - Another plane is asked to keep an eye out for the plane.

20:30 - Fire/police notified.

21:50 - Emergency declared.

24:00 - Dash 8 didn't make the airport.

first time here so forgive me... but at 1608 you hear the woman pilot just say 3407... or am i wrong?
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rob35235
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« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2009, 02:48:25 AM »

Isn't this the first major crash since the AA jet bound from JFK to Puerto Rico in 2001?
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