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| | |-+  Continental (Colgan)-3407 -8 Crash in Buffalo
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Author Topic: Continental (Colgan)-3407 -8 Crash in Buffalo  (Read 141621 times)
bsmith19
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« Reply #15 on: February 13, 2009, 01:11:34 AM »

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jrsx
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« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2009, 01:15:09 AM »

Here is my edited clip of the events

not to nit pick but you missed two communications

1. Clearance to the ILS
2. Handoff to tower
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onetwenty
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« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2009, 01:27:58 AM »

the jist i'm getting is that there was an inconsistency in their ILS for runway 23, something like that, if the frequency dropped randomly may cause the computer to 'disconnect' in a way, much like removing a cord from your modem, and may just fall as the aircraft is relying on instruments. Who's to even say that that 'blip' may have overloaded the computer, kind of like a short.
but in the end, icing may be the culprit, even though the most reported was 1/4 inch.
.. what i dont get is according to the news it flew in an opposite direction before it crashed.. none of that hypothetical transmissions are on the audio.

..ive edited the entire orig archive file, not specific to colgan, but to remove the long pauses in comms.

watching news now..

Colgan 3407
44 passengers, 4 crew
another news conference at 4am
one home with one person inside
12 homes evacuated
..
flying NORTHBOUND on a South-SW glide path, engines "didn't sound normal", impact with ground at 10:17.. flat landing in a low left turn, aircraft's nose pitch steep angle down.

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BWilliams
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« Reply #18 on: February 13, 2009, 01:28:35 AM »

Wow... absolutely terrible.  Very interesting audio ... I'd definately agree with the icing theory based on the total lack of emergency comms.

Although, damn, if only I was currently in Buffalo, instead of out in Rochester here.  Would have liked to go see the scene. Never thought I'd see the day that Buffalo of all places has a major plane crash.
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EivlEvo
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« Reply #19 on: February 13, 2009, 01:46:54 AM »

She sounded a little shaky on her last comm... but nothing that is "abnormal".

They were saying the localizer at 1500ft had a "blip" in it. But it was only deflecting left right 1 notch. This is significant, but not significant enough to put a dash 8 into a house with no communications? Even still, this "blip" was reported at 1500ft and the crash occurred at KLUMP which is the Outer Marker. If they intercepted appropriately, their altitude would be 2206 (or greater if they glided to the crash site). So I doubt the localizer would've played any part in this by itself.

Either way... thoughts and prayers to the necessary places.
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micahw
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« Reply #20 on: February 13, 2009, 01:59:12 AM »

the jist i'm getting is that there was an inconsistency in their ILS for runway 23, something like that, if the frequency dropped randomly may cause the computer to 'disconnect' in a way, much like removing a cord from your modem, and may just fall as the aircraft is relying on instruments. Who's to even say that that 'blip' may have overloaded the computer, kind of like a short.
but in the end, icing may be the culprit, even though the most reported was 1/4 inch.
.. what i dont get is according to the news it flew in an opposite direction before it crashed.. none of that hypothetical transmissions are on the audio.


flying NORTHBOUND on a South-SW glide path, engines "didn't sound normal", impact with ground at 10:17.. flat landing in a low left turn, aircraft's nose pitch steep angle down.



Just to help ease some of the theories. From a commercial pilots perspective.

Losing the Localiser wouldn't cause any autopilot I know of to "fall". Not to mention that a localiser provides LATERAL guidance, not vertical. Also, losing the ILS signal during the approach should be followed by a missed approach procedure if it was anything more than a minor "bump". But like someone else said a one dot deflection on the localiser is not enough to cause a crash like this.

As far as icing goes Turboprops have sufficient anti-icing capabilities to combat icing conditions. But whose to say they were working properly. Weather is always one of the first things people think of because in a situation like this it's the only thing we know for sure as of yet. And it isn't immediately ruled out since it wasn't a beautiful night with no weather in the area.

I also agree, after reviewing the tape, that a few of the transmissions do sound a little shaky...maybe nerves from a situation onboard... or just turbulent conditions while transmitting.

There are a lot of things that happen in that last 5 or so miles. The aircraft configuration changes, possibly an assymetric flap extension causing the aircraft to roll uncontrollably. Or a sudden power change caused the engine stress that caused a failure. LOTS of possibilities. The point is, unfortunately we'll have to wait for the investigators to do their jobs and everyone in the industry learns from it, if it was a preventable accident.

None of this is meant to disprove anyone or offend. Just trying to clarify from my experience, and add another few possibilities.

« Last Edit: February 13, 2009, 02:03:22 AM by micahw » Logged
KJET100
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« Reply #21 on: February 13, 2009, 02:03:24 AM »

Ice. The Dash 8 is bad in Ice.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2009, 02:09:34 AM by KJET100 » Logged
Duffy
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« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2009, 02:11:38 AM »

Here's the edit, from first contact with approach...through to the tower, and then approach talking to the next Colgan Dash 8 warning him of the company crash.
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tampagrl0518
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« Reply #23 on: February 13, 2009, 02:39:48 AM »

15:22 - Last contact with 3407

17:22 - Another plane is asked to keep an eye out for the plane.

20:30 - Fire/police notified.

21:50 - Emergency declared.

24:00 - Dash 8 didn't make the airport.

first time here so forgive me... but at 1608 you hear the woman pilot just say 3407... or am i wrong?
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rob35235
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« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2009, 02:48:25 AM »

Isn't this the first major crash since the AA jet bound from JFK to Puerto Rico in 2001?
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ls6camaroa4
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« Reply #25 on: February 13, 2009, 02:49:24 AM »

Good job OP, your recording is being covered on CNN.
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PIT
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« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2009, 02:50:28 AM »

MSNBC just used the liveatc clip and there was no recognition WTF??? angry
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frantzy
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« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2009, 02:54:38 AM »

Ice. The Dash 8 is bad in Ice.
Please elaborate.   I know of the ATR in Roselawn, but it seems like Dash 8s operate incident free in some pretty icy places.  (I'm not trying to pick a fight, just trying to understand).
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jrsx
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« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2009, 02:57:23 AM »

MSNBC just used the liveatc clip and there was no recognition WTF??? angry

The inaccuracies in news reporting amaze me, they reported that the recording was Cleveland Center.
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spikerjack
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« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2009, 02:59:17 AM »

Isn't this the first major crash since the AA jet bound from JFK to Puerto Rico in 2001?

I think the last was Comair #191 in Lexington back in August 2006.  49 lost, co-pilot survived.
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