Continental (Colgan)-3407 -8 Crash in Buffalo

[KSYR-pjr]

Here's the Flightaware log showing decent of ~1000 ft/min after 9:58pm

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CJC3407/history/20090213/0220Z/KEWR/KBUF/tracklog

is that unusual?

Not even close.  I routinely descend in my Bonanza at 1,000 fpm when there are no passengers on board (non-pressurized aircraft tends to blow out eardrums of passengers at rates greater than 600fpm).   Pressurized airline transport aircraft will routinely descend between 2,000 and 4,000 fpm, depending on ATC's instructions.

[Hollis]

Note the leading adges are all 100% booted.

[727driver]

If there are any dash-8 drivers out there here are a couple of questions regarding your ils profile.  When do you start confirguring? Does the tail have boots aswell? I ask because if there was alot of ice on the tail once you start putting out flaps you can stall the tail which can lead to a departure from pitch control. Usually causes an abrupt pitch down movement. The recovery is to return to the last config before the stall occurred, apply max power and pull the nose up.

My prayers go out to crew and passengers of 3407. God Speed.

[glencar]

CNN is so off. I love the questions and speculation.  In their transcript, they say "Nothing on the TK's"  ITS TCAS!! Come on, get this stuff right.

I watched CNN this morning & they said the plane lost comm at 5300'. But then FOX said it was at 2300'. That's a huge difference. Who is right?

[laylow]

According to the ATC audio, I'd say Fox is closer to right than CNN.

[wadegamm]

It looks like it is all ice related.  That is the exact point where everything would have been deploying out and the power is being slightly reduced.  The crash site is not even a half mile from the LOM( KLUMP).   It may be the result of a partial or un-equal deployment of any one of the flaps, slats, or gear or just a total ice function effecting lift.  The -8s only have leading edge boots and don’t have heated or bleeding wings.      As for the slight LOC fluctuation, that is normal when another aircraft crosses the LOC runway and that is what had happened as the aircraft that made that particular report was inbound.  No one was crossing the active when 3407 was on the approach. 

I am trying to figure out which it is.  There are supposed to be sensors that prevent differential deployment of flaps, slats, and speed brakes, but I don’t know the exact details of the -8 400s

[laylow]

Listening to NTSB now, crew discussed significant icing on wing leading edge and cockpit windshield, airframe anti-ice set for ON prior to that conversation.  One minute before the end of the cockpit recording, crew lowered gear.  20 seconds later, flaps set for 15.  Within seconds of flaps to 15, significant pitch and roll deviations.  Crew attempted to raise gear and flaps, recording ends.

[kea001]

Preliminary points uncovered so far from black box that were made at NTSB press conference, 4 p.m.

    Weather discussed between crew was snow with mist, 3 miles visibility.

1. Crew discussed considerable ice build up on windshield and leading edges of the wings.
2. Air frame de-ice selected in the 'on' position
3. Landing gear placed down 1 minute before end of recording
4. Flaps selected at 15 degrees
5. Series of severe pitch and roll 'excursions' occurred within seconds of flaps being extended.
6. Crew tried to retract gear and flaps just prior (seconds) to crash.

video here: MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/29186499#29186499

[KSYR-pjr]

1. Crew discussed considerable ice build up on windshield and leading edges of the wings.
2. Air frame de-ice selected in the 'on' position

So, this begs the question:   Does the chronology of this CVR imply that airframe deice/anti-ice (assuming there are different settings) protection was not enabled prior to the discovery mentioned in item 1?

[laylow]

The NTSB rep specifically said that anti-ice was on _prior_ to the crew conversation about ice.

[kea001]

The NTSB rep specifically said that anti-ice was on _prior_ to the crew conversation about ice.

I heard that as well. Whether it was working or not is another matter.


###

Bloomberg News credits liveatc.net for atc communications recording.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZz1THkGNt0U&refer=home

[Jason]

All of the discussion on tailplane stall in icing conditions made me think of this NASA research presentation:

Definitely worth watching.

My sincerest condolences go out to the family and friends of the victims involved in this tragic accident.

Best,
Jason

[smoak]

"Series of severe pitch and roll 'excursions' occurred within seconds of flaps being extended"

Having no experience is icing conditions like this, only having read about it, could this be the airflow/aerodynamic change being that off when the flaps 15 is engaged?  Like an "uncommanded pitch down of the nose or other severe control problems during flaps extension."

WOW THAT VIDEO ABOVE MIGHT BE SPOT ON!

Recovery from tail stall:

1.  Immediate stick full back
2.   immediate retract flaps
3.   retard power

Lost 300 feet of altitude in 2/10 of a second... No wonder why this is so dangerous.  Scary stuff.

Also, sure sounds a lot like the de-ice system was inop? 

[Jason]

"Series of severe pitch and roll 'excursions' occurred within seconds of flaps being extended"

Having no experience is icing conditions like this, only having read about it, could this be the airflow/aerodynamic change being that off when the flaps 15 is engaged?  Like an "uncommanded pitch down of the nose or other severe control problems during flaps extension."

WOW THAT VIDEO ABOVE MIGHT BE SPOT ON!

Also, sure sounds a lot like the de-ice system was inop? 

The test flight data recorded and presented in the video above certainly points to many of the symptoms that have been speculated by industry experts and the facts released by the NTSB involving this case.

[smoak]

It sure does Jason.  Thank you so much for posting. 

Also, that recovery sure is different than the wing stall.  If you are thinking about it you are in the ground already.  Scary.  And, those force pressures could be too much for the crew.