Continental (Colgan)-3407 -8 Crash in Buffalo

[smoak]

Sorry one more folks:

That warning at 21:40 of the video is just about as eerie as it gets!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That could be this accident for sure.

[laylow]

I'm watching the video as well.  Obviously until the NTSB releases their report we won't know, but it sure sounds like NASA was talking about 3407 in that video.

[dska22]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29173163/

haha.  This map is completely wrong:  It shows the plane crashing in Lancaster, NY which is about 5 miles south of Clarence Center.  They used Flight Tracker's path and assumed the last data point for 3407 is where it crashed.  In fact, 3407 continued North then turned left to become established on the localizer for 23.  THEN, the plane crashed.  The media is aggravating me way too much today.

[kea001]

..., but it sure sounds like NASA was talking about 3407 in that video.

Well I'm not convinced. Rime ice problem, probably, but specifically tailplane icing stall?
I see the severe pitch but what accounts for the severe rolling?

Having said that, the discussion on

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/36891-colgan-q400-crash-outside-buf-22.html

is interesting, to say the least.

>>>
Quote:
Originally Posted by undflyboy06 
Slow speed, configured, inclement weather......does anyone think that it might be a tail stall? I know that I shouldn't guess, but for some reason my gut is telling me of a possible tail stall scenario.
Thinking the same. A tail stall is almost unrecoverable, especially at such low altitudes. Plus, we don't train well how to recover from such. Completely opposite to a wing stall.<<<<

>>>
I would like to add my experience flying the 400 in ice. I have experienced MANY different icing conditions in this type of A/C including "roll upset" due SEVERE icing while in a climb to altitude. I do not believe that the icing reported in the pireps would have caused this aircraft to come down on approach. Moderate clear ice in freezing rain on approach and amazingly this airplane still handles normally (aside from the shotgun blast noise of ice coming off the props.) I will add though, that it was VERY VERY VERY (can i make it any clearer) EXTREMELY common to have deicing malfunctions on this a/c. I am talking about two to three write up's a trip in the winter. If you heard DING on desent 98% of the time it was a DEICE PRESSUE caution.<<<<

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29173163/
 This map is completely wrong: 

Don't sweat the small stuff.

The map is probably one of 200 tasks that artist had to do to get paid for his/her 8 hours of hard labor today.
plus MSNBC, from my experience, is very adept at holding your attention by YELLING with very little solid information behind it. 
That is their mode of operating.

[maydayfire]

tutorial on aviation icing

http://virtualskies.arc.nasa.gov/weather/tutorial/tutorial4.html

[djmodifyd]

UGH
im so sick of the news.  Watching this just proves how bad they are at delivering the news.

half of the transcripts of the ATC communications were wrong...sometimes WAY off.

maybe im just used to hearing the radio's and understanding, but holy CNN, get your stuff right before you broadcast


godspeed to all souls lost

[xerox227]

I'm watching the video as well.  Obviously until the NTSB releases their report we won't know, but it sure sounds like NASA was talking about 3407 in that video.

This is really interesting stuff. Sure does sound like the incident at BUF

My prayers to the souls lost on 3407

[napper505]

Sad day

Dash 8 Q400 has hydraulic powered elevators plus redundant backup. De-ice boots on wing,  V-stab & H-stab.

Lets just wait and see what the Black box(Orange) has to say.  a/c 4200 was equipped with an 88 parameter " FDAU"  all pilot input and corresponding control surface movement and  forces will have been recorded for scrutiny.  I find the Co-pilots last transmission Chilling compared to the previous one where she sounds like the A/C is being buffeted.

Scary stuff   

Napper505

Were can i find  the the warning tape for the second 400 on approach  to Buffalo



 

[smoak]

The more I read on other forums and the more I think about this, it really has to be a tailplane icing situation that simply was not recovered from in enough time. 

The link to http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional is insightful and another poster there is really thinking the same thing.  I think Jason here is really onto something with this folks. 

I am just really shaking my head thinking how this happened.  So scary, so possible!

[tvccs]

As a long-time member of the media...and one who has been saddened for years by the dumbing-down of our business, especially in the news end, I wanted to thank the folks on this forum for their insights, links and information on this issue. 

It's sad to say that I have learned far more from following the conversations and related materials here than listening to CNN and Fox News put together, which is a very sad commentary on the state of the news business in the U.S.  A post over on CNN's iReport from a 19-year old teen describes what were likely a couple of reporters from the Buffalo ABC affiliate last night talking a kid into taking his home video camera into the crash scene at close range as their primary interest, which ended up getting him arrested and directly exposed to that toxic inferno.  Getting an "exclusive" is what matters, rather than getting it right, and CNN in particular this morning was just horrible in the accuracy and detail of their reporting and entire approach, down to being concerned with getting a "tease" in for what they were about to report...as if the tease was either needed, or important.

I want to thank the folks here for their many insights and information...I'm not a pilot but learned about ATC over the years due to being involved in tower construction proposals, and had the opportunity to work with a very fine FAA consultant and former controller who could answer nearly any question immediately and with depth.  When I fly United, etc., I listen to the ATC channel when available the entire flight. 

I heard a lawyer many years ago, who had had his own media problems, say "You can believe everything you read in the newspaper (or hear on TV) expect those stories of which you have first-hand knowledge."

I have taken that credo to heart as a challenge ever since in my own work...I only wish there was some tiny semblance of same left in our business as a whole.  The Cronkites, Huntleys, Murrows, McNeills, Jennings and Rathers of the world are ashamed at what passes for credible reporting in the present day, where TV should be at its very best. 

Keep up the good work here...in times like these, forums like this take on ever greater importance. 

[claver]

Look at the weather history for KBUF. Check out the winds aloft, temps and rainfall rates. Look a the WX radar history. Look at the coldfront passing over KBUF. Once you look at the weather and the windshear and icing you realize that this airport should have been closed until the front had passed. Conditions at the airport even if acceptable are deceptive since you must fly through the ice and wind shears to get there. Every plane that went though this was also taking on unacceptable risk. Another case of get-there-itis.

[KSYR-pjr]

Once you look at the weather and the windshear and icing you realize that this airport should have been closed until the front had passed. Conditions at the airport even if acceptable are deceptive since you must fly through the ice and wind shears to get there. Every plane that went though this was also taking on unacceptable risk. Another case of get-there-itis.

Huh?  From those comments I'll take it you are neither an experienced nor a professional pilot and have no idea of the weather these aircraft fly through on a daily basis here in the Northeast US throughout the six months that make up icing season.   Intelligence and logic suggest waiting until the final NTSB conclusion comes out before passing critical judgment publicly rather than standing on one's  soapbox spewing ignorance as the wreckage still smolders.

Do you know what asymmetrical flaps deployment is?  Could you personally vouch for the operating health of the anti-ice/deice system of that aircraft?  Do you know for certain that crew responded in a timely and appropriate manner to the threat of the building ice well before it became critical?  I am betting a paycheck that you could not answer in the affirmative to at least two of those three questions so I perceive your comments here as nothing more than an emotional, knee jerk response so typical of the ill-informed.

[flygirltammy]

All of the discussion on tailplane stall in icing conditions made me think of this NASA research presentation:

Definitely worth watching.

My sincerest condolences go out to the family and friends of the victims involved in this tragic accident.

Best,
Jason

I haven't posted anything on this yet, so 1st I would like to express my condolences for every single soul on board Flight 3407 and their families. It's always very disturbing and saddening when fellow "brothers and sisters in arms" have had their last flight. It's almost like losing a friend. After listening to the audio, I just had to sit quietly and think for a while.

That NASA video does seem to hit this possible cause right on. I can honestly say that not once in all of my training was this particular icing condition even off-handedly mentioned. That is not good. I want to try to learn all I can about this. Thanks for the link.

[GuessWho08]

My Gut feeling keeps me thinking it very well could have been a Tail stall,  At the low Altitude,  Possibly Icing enhanced this problem (Who's to say the De-Ice / Boots were or were not operational).  And please correct me if I'm wrong but at that approximate 5mile marker would they not have been starting to get into there landing configuration?  As Stated above, Possibly asymmetrical flaps...     I really think all of the above played a roll in this accident.



-added:  Just watched that NASA Video myself, Scary how it does seem to hit this one on the nose as a possible explanation. 

[cessna157]

Look at the weather history for KBUF. Check out the winds aloft, temps and rainfall rates. Look a the WX radar history. Look at the coldfront passing over KBUF. Once you look at the weather and the windshear and icing you realize that this airport should have been closed until the front had passed. Conditions at the airport even if acceptable are deceptive since you must fly through the ice and wind shears to get there. Every plane that went though this was also taking on unacceptable risk. Another case of get-there-itis.

Is that supposed to be a joke?  Airports don't close for weather.  Occasionally an airport will close after a large snowstorm so trucks may clear the runways without interruption.  Or a hurricane may force the evacuation of all facilities. 

What are your credentials to say that "Every plane that went though this was also taking on unacceptable risk"?  It is the crew's discretion as to what weather they may fly in to.  Part 121 aircraft are certified into known icing.  My aircraft has excellent ice shedding capibilities.  We wouldn't even think twice before flying into this weather.  Who are you to say that EVERY aircraft of all types should have crashed after flying here?  It has been shown that deice boots are not as effective as bleed air fed hot wings.

I'd like to think that all of the training that I have gone through, from my first private pilot flight, all the way up to my recurrent sims that I have to go through every year, have prepared me for what is out there.  And it is my choice as to whether I deem it safe to fly through.  Just because there is windshear reported (which I don't believe there was in this case) doesn't mean an aircraft shouldn't fly through it.  We take appropriate steps to protect ourselves from it, whether it be to carry 10 extra knots, or to put the ignition on in the engines.

These guys were professional pilots flying a new, very advanced aircraft.  Lets not jump to any conclusions as to what happened, from pilot error, to aircraft system failure, to abnormally high ice rates.  Let the NTSB do their job, and please don't help.