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Author Topic: Sanford Crash  (Read 28139 times)
KSYR-pjr
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« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2007, 02:40:22 PM »

It truly could happen to anybody, and that reality has since been realised, when I visited the site.

In no way do I mean to dishonor your volunteer work or the horror of this crash, but regarding the above comment I would be interested in some clarification. 

Are you implying that airplanes could drop into anyone's home?   
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clodhoppers18
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« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2007, 02:50:49 PM »

Well I am saying that a mishap such as smoke in cockpit, loss of navigation, wing/engine falling off, and causing a crash, it could happen anywhere, and the plane really doesnt care how much money you make, where you live, or who you are.

I guess I should have replaced the word "anyone" in the phrase "it could happen to anyone"  with the word "anywhere".

Just an FYI the houses in that neighborhood have cadilacs, volvos, BMWs, and mercedes in the driveways, and the houses themselves are probably around $350,000 or more.  They are very nice houses.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2007, 02:53:46 PM by clodhoppers18 » Logged

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« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2007, 03:08:49 PM »

I have to agree with Dustin, it can really happen "anywhere" and to "anyone" who happens to be on the ground at that time. I realized this too, I live in the apartment building right next to the where Corey Lidle's Cirrus crashed in October, and watched it unfold out of my window. As a pilot, it was a humbling experience, and I commend you Dustin for helping out.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2007, 06:58:24 PM by aevins » Logged
KSYR-pjr
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2007, 01:09:34 PM »

I have to agree with Dustin, it can really happen "anywhere" and to "anyone" who happens to be on the ground at that time.

Ok, finally.  After a couple of days of limited research here is my counterpoint with some statistics to back it up.

There is the emotional response and then there is the logical response to this type of accident.   The emotional response, which is understandably experienced by the average person who derives most of their information from the 6 o'clock news, is that airplanes falling out of the sky and killing people on the ground is a very real threat.  This concern is similar, IMO, to the fear of flying in small airplanes.  When one receives their information from the headline news media, one tends to develop a somewhat skewed interpretation of the probabilities.  You know the adage: "Bad news sells." 

This point is also demonstrated in the average citizen's perception of violent crime.  Ask someone on the street if they think that violent crime is on the rise in the US and you will most likely receive a resounding "YES."  However, statistics prove that violent crime has been on the decline in the US for the last several years.  Media sensationalism is to blame for the disparity here.

The logical response, however, is to interpret and understand the statistics of these types of accidents with the goal of putting the probability into perspective.  My interpretation of your and the other poster's reply about "this could happen anywhere" falls into a more emotional than logical response (respectfully speaking).

As an active general aviation pilot I always had a gut feeling that aviation accidents (any aircraft accident, not just GA) that either kill or injure random people on the ground make up a very low percentage of the total type of accidents.  As well, the total number of people killed or injured on the ground by aviation accidents is also very low, year to year.

However, to prove this I had to get a hold of the raw data and do some analysis.  While one could simply go to the NTSB Aviation Accident Database Query page on the web, the ability to query for this specific theory is too limited on that page.  The better option is to download the entire accident database, made freely available by the NTSB, and import it into a PC-based accident database management tool for developing one's own comprehensive SQL queries.

In my case  I downloaded the entire NTSB accident database, found here, and imported it into MySQL, a free and fully robust database server tool.  From there I queried the database to count how many accidents injured or killed ground-based people.

For those interested, here's what I discovered -

Note:  These results are for US-based accidents only and exclude the terrorist attacks of 9/11.  Also, I only went back to 1990, which gives a 17 year picture (I believe a statistician would agree this is a good sample set). 


         |--------- ACCIDENTS-----------||--GROUND--||-----------PROBABILITY-----------|
YearTotal Gnd Inj/Death % of TotalDeathsInjuries       Dying              Injured       
1990 927 60.6% 4 3  1 in  62,197,731  1 in 82,930,308
19911126 50.4% 3 5  1 in  84,008,402  1 in 50,405,041
19922212110.5% 410  1 in  63,825,384  1 in 25,530,153
19932147140.7% 610  1 in  43,103,409  1 in 25,862,045
19942108180.9% 743  1 in  37,426,074  1 in  6,092,617
19952127120.6% 7 9  1 in  37,912,613  1 in 29,487,588
19962013100.5% 610  1 in  44,806,390  1 in 26,883,834
19971949160.8% 615  1 in  45,388,873  1 in 18,155,549
19982009160.8% 714  1 in  39,410,510  1 in 19,705,255
19992000120.6% 448  1 in  69,864,982  1 in  5,822,082
20001950 60.3% 2 7  1 in 141,108,476  1 in 40,316,707
20011830160.9%1228  1 in  23,768,857  1 in 10,186,653
20021814110.6% 511  1 in  57,625,195  1 in 26,193,270
20031869120.6% 620  1 in  48,466,004  1 in 14,539,801
20041720 60.3% 0 9       n/a          1 in 32,626,462
20051781100.6% 520  1 in  59,301,412  1 in 14,825,353
20061593100.6% 511  1 in  59,879,697  1 in 27,218,044

 
As you can see, the probability of being killed on the ground by an airplane is approximately 1 in 55 million each year and being injured is approximately 1 in 25 million each year. 

To compare, the one year probability of dying while riding a motorcycle are 1 in 79,121(*), the odds of falling from stairs or steps are 1 in 183,155(*), and the odds of dying in a car are 1 in 18,412(*)

(*) source:  http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm)

This is a bit much but I wanted to back up my thoughts with the statistics. 

And again, in no way do I mean any disrespect to you in this thread or more importantly to the families of those killed or injured by this accident.
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pilotboi411
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2007, 02:21:09 PM »

Very, very, VERY nice research! Have you ever thought about becoming a researcher/statistician? And the odds are very interesting to compare. Thanks for your work.
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KSYR-pjr
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« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2007, 05:34:14 PM »

Statistician?  No thanks.  Smiley  I am just trying to buck the trend of spouting out opinions as facts without the proper backup.

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digger
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« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2007, 05:48:35 PM »

Quote
To compare, the one year probability of dying while riding a motorcycle are 1 in 79,121(*), the odds of falling from stairs or steps are 1 in 183,155(*), and the odds of dying in a car are 1 in 18,412(*)


Those are all examples of things we have at least some measure of choice in. The "airplane falling on my house" scenario is one that has no rhyme nor reason, and would seem to pick it's victims totally at random. (At least for those houses some distance from an airport.) That total randomness is what makes it an easy topic for the sensationalists to prey on, regardless of what the actual statistical chances are.

Could it happen to you? Sure. Is it worth worrying about? Only if you need something to keep you unhappy.
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KSYR-pjr
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« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2007, 09:33:45 PM »

Those are all examples of things we have at least some measure of choice in. The "airplane falling on my house" scenario is one that has no rhyme nor reason, and would seem to pick it's victims totally at random

I was going to use the "meteorite crashing through one's house" example, but those were some crazy odds.  (1 in 182,138,880,000,000)
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« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2007, 10:10:15 PM »

It's one of those things that for some inexplicable reason I remember very clearly, but some years ago, here in the Pittsburgh area, a woman was killed while driving her car. There was an explosion in an underground electrical manhole, and the cast iron lid was thrown into the air, and crashed through her windsheild. To me, that was always the epitome of a "freak accident".

In late 2001, I was out one night, and literally, 30 seconds after I passed, a similar explosion occurred in an underground electrical vault. The concrete lid of the vault was thrown onto the sidewalk several feet away.

I don't know what the odds of being killed by the flying cover of an underground electrical vault are, but I'm sure they're pretty slim too. The point is, that when you're aware that such a possibility exists, it certainly catches your attention when you miss becoming part of such an event by mere seconds.

I know it can happen, but I don't keep a constant vigil for flying manhole covers...
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clodhoppers18
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« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2007, 02:20:29 AM »

I did not intend to start a long discussion about the idea of a plane falling on someones house.  Nor did I imply or state that I was concerned that a plane was going to come crashing down into my house.  I simply was putting forth the idea that one second life can be so normal, then the next second everything can be completely chaoitic.  Live life to the fullest, and DONT worry about that plane that COULD come crashing into your house.  Instead live to have fun, and not to worry about something like that. the odds of it happening are slim, and if it just happens that you are that 1 in whatever million that just happen to have a plane come crashing into their living room, then you can go out knowing that you had fun and were not concerned about that.  Its like a friend of mine says, "you cant control anything by worrying about it".  I was simply stating a point that was trying to be made, not trying to say that one should worry about a plane crashing into their house.

Dustin
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KSYR-pjr
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« Reply #25 on: July 14, 2007, 01:16:33 PM »

I did not intend to start a long discussion about the idea of a plane falling on someones house.

Discussions take a life of their own on public discussion boards.   Once you toss your ideas into the mix they become fodder for anyone.   C'est la vie.
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« Reply #26 on: July 15, 2007, 03:12:40 PM »

Nothing wrong with discussion! I read on a local news website about the crash and some lady posted about how scared she was of a plane falling on her. I tried to let her know the facts but don't think she took to them. Theres a chance of everything.
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KTVC10/28
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« Reply #27 on: July 19, 2007, 05:48:52 AM »

It truly could happen to anybody, and that reality has since been realised, when I visited the site.

In no way do I mean to dishonor your volunteer work or the horror of this crash, but regarding the above comment I would be interested in some clarification. 

Are you implying that airplanes could drop into anyone's home?   


Well, sorry but I don't understand why you feel there is any clarification necessary.

It is simply true. There are Aircraft. They are in the Air. If they crash at the wrong time in the wrong place they could in fact and do in fact kill people on the ground. The likelihood and or frequency of such accidents has nothing what ever to do with the point at hand.

He didn't in any way imply that he thought this would now begin to happen more often than in the past. He simply stated that it could. I imagine that seeing this horrible thing up close was somewhat unnerving.

The Emotional response is "God how terrible. This could have happened anywhere".. The Logical response is the same because it is simply true. It COULD CAN and WILL happen again. Likelihood is irrelevant.

Also, I don't see what the 6 o'clock News has to do with this.

I guess I just don't understand why you were all over him for pointing out that Aircraft can't stay up for ever and we don't always get to choose what this means.


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dorishd
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« Reply #28 on: July 19, 2007, 08:32:00 AM »

I believe I saw a headline of another crash into a building or house this morning. I will have to search. Anyone else hear of it?
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KSYR-pjr
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« Reply #29 on: July 19, 2007, 08:48:01 AM »

It is simply true. There are Aircraft. They are in the Air. If they crash at the wrong time in the wrong place they could in fact and do in fact kill people on the ground. The likelihood and or frequency of such accidents has nothing what ever to do with the point at hand.

LOL.    Thanks for the levity.

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