Malaysia Airlines reports ATC loses contact with MAS370, WMKK-ZBAA

[InterpreDemon]

I think they default to the flight planned route and where the aircraft should be at the time when data is not available. The ADS only gives position, speed, and altitude.

[Marty Becker]

The ADS only gives position, speed, and altitude.

Plus heading, aircraft's unique ICAO hex code, flight number if entered by the crew and squawk code.

[joeyb747]

Latest updates from AvHerald...

"On Mar 13th 2014 two Vietnamese aircraft reached the position identified by SASTIND but did not find any debris scanning the area for about 3 hours. China's head of government ordered Chinese ships to the position to "try harder" to find the debris identified by the satellite images. The head of China's Civil Aviation Authority (CAAC) stated, that the SASTIND satellite images show smoke and floating objects, however, "at this time the CAAC can not confirm these objects are related to MH-370" (editorial note: media reports converted this statement into "the debris is not from MH-370").

On Mar 13th 2014 afternoon Malaysia's Transport Minister said in a televised press conference, that the last ACARS transmission was received from the aircraft at 01:07L (17:07Z), there were no later transmissions via ACARS (editorial note: which effectively states a report by a single US "news" paper of the engines monitoring recording information via ACARS for 4 more hours is untrue), the last transmission received from the aircraft indicated all systems were operating normally. Boeing, Roll Royce, and NTSB confirmed the last data transmission received from the aircraft was at 01:07L. Malaysia's Search Control Center consulted with the NTSB and other agencies with respect to the unidentified primary radar returns and it was a common decision, that there were sufficient grounds to dedicate forces to search for the aircraft west of Malaysia. The aircraft dispatched to the location identified by SASTIND did not find anything, China did not intend to release the satellite images to the public. Malaysia is committed to find the aircraft and is going to intensify search efforts further."

http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0

More and more curious...

[blakepilot]

I'm for the pilot suicide as well, especially since it has happened before. Flying at night, he could have changed course without the sleeping passengers noticing, flown out over the southern Indian Ocean and augered in before anybody knew what was happening or could do anything about it. Might as well be looking for Amelia Earhart while we're at it.

Course changes at night are often not felt by anyone, especially with bank limitations and yaw dampers built into autopilots.  If pilot suicide is the cause, unless the two pilots had a suicide pact, the pilot flying would have to disable the other pilot somehow.  The only way I could think that would work would either be a violent act (which would undoubtedly be noticed/heard by other crew or pax) or dump the cabin pressure while the other pilot is visiting the lav and pilot flying was wearing o2.  Most of our domestic carriers require a minimum of 2 crew on the flight deck at all times, whether that be 2 pilots, a pilot and the purser, etc.  That's not the case in most other countries.

Anyway...here I go getting on the speculation train...I have a long day flying a King Air tomorrow.  Time to watch junk TV and not forums.  

[blakepilot]

Okay one more post: it's now being widely reported that there were pings sent to Inmersat satellites hours after it vanishing, although no specific data was transmitted.  This might even further implicate a takeover of sorts.  I still think it would take someone very highly trained to pull the right breakers to disable everything needed to make the airplane vanish.  I'm not saying hijackers can't be highly trained, but it would have to be extremely coordinated, extremely quick, and extremely effective to takeover all crew stations simultaneously.

[InterpreDemon]

The latest is that there was a 14 minute gap between when the ADS was shut down and the transponder, which nukes the total electrical failure theory. Also, it is logical that the sat system would continue pinging regardless whether they were logged onto CPDLC and actually sending data, and even if they de-powered the ADS it is likely the other performance related reporting systems may have been pinging on their own. Don't know whether they are independent but I suspect they are.

As to the decompression theory, I cannot imagine the emergency oxygen system can be disarmed from the cockpit and the flight attendants have their bottles, so one of them should have been able to get to the sat phone. Besides, I don't see the need in darkness over water with a flight expected to last hours... they just keep cruising along, making cabin announcements about the headwinds, etc.,  until it's time to roll inverted and aim for the water. Alternatively he (or they) might just swallow a bottle of sleeping pills when there is only a half hour of fuel remaining. The objective was to make the plane disappear without a trace, CVR never recovered, and the southern Indian Ocean is the place to do it.

[bill1229]

I'm interested to learn more on programming the FMC. Can the pilot / co mis-program the FMC (intentionally or not) then start the flight with a "bad" program or are there safeties to prevent this? Thinking lack of situational awareness, given recent similar situations, until they wake up south of Japan. 

Also, if the plane were spiked as speculated, anyone know if SOSUS would pick that up?   A bit far from Guam or Midway but sound travels far in water.  Thanks.

[InterpreDemon]

That may be one of the bigger problems in collecting data... no military or intelligence agency wants to reveal their capabilities (or lack thereof) to others. I recall years ago when the Soviets shot down that Korean airliner and there was internal debate as to whether we should reveal that we were able to monitor and had recordings of all the communications between the fighter pilots and their controller, including the smoking gun tape, "The target is destroyed".

[blakepilot]

I'm interested to learn more on programming the FMC. Can the pilot / co mis-program the FMC (intentionally or not) then start the flight with a "bad" program or are there safeties to prevent this? Thinking lack of situational awareness, given recent similar situations, until they wake up south of Japan.

Well even if the FMS was programmed horribly wrong, any pilot with a little training could recognize something awry, let alone 2 experienced 777 pilots.  That kind of deviation would be very apparent on the PFD.  The planned route of flight was didn't encompass many large turns, so a prolonged 90* turn would definitely be noticed almost immediately.  Not only that, but even if they did go way off course before noticing they were, why didn't they send out a distress signal?  Why didn't they check in with Ho Chi Minh control after they were handed off?  Too many holes.

[JohnN]

Now I'm hearing 2 new pieces of information on CNN. First, I heard them mention something about waypoints in the Indian Ocean. What links MAS370 to those waypoints? Second, they mentioned something about lithium batteries in the cargo hold possibly bringing the plane down. Why are they suspicious of lithium batteries?

[blakepilot]

Now I'm hearing 2 new pieces of information on CNN. First, I heard them mention something about waypoints in the Indian Ocean. What links MAS370 to those waypoints? Second, they mentioned something about lithium batteries in the cargo hold possibly bringing the plane down. Why are they suspicious of lithium batteries?

I suspect CNN's battery theory has a lot to do with the 787, and probably has very little relevancy to this accident.  In short, lithium batteries have been a major problem on 787's, specifically catching fire.  777 uses nickel cadmium batteries though.

I would take anything you read on CNN with a grain of salt.  Their panel of "experts" include people like Bill Nye the science guy, and a bunch of people with no aviation background.  They are simply mouthpieces to the masses, but often time don't have a clue what they're talking about.

[InterpreDemon]

Here's a good link about communications:

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/03/todays-malaysia-airlines-370-news-what-it-means-that-the-plane-apparently-kept-flying/284414/

[xiangster]

This is bad looks like all of the communications systems of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 were deliberately disabled and shut down and then it changed course, flying back over Malaysia towards India and Satellite signals continued to be picked up from the plane some seven hours after it lost radar contact with the last on at 8:11 am the next morning

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26591056#?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[w.pasman]

Yes, apparently it continued flying more than 7 hours. Sounds like a james bond movie

I think that rules out a pilot suicide? Why would you keep flying 7 hours then? To die in your favourite country?

Trying to steal the plane? But all items are numbered so chances to re-use or sell  parts might be futile?

Could this just be a "test run" to see what intelligence capabilities really are? Preparing for something else?

Or was there a special Chinese passenger on board? China has way above normal interest in this accident?

[JohnN]

I don't understand how it could have flown for 7 hours, if it only had enough fuel to fly for 4-5 hours. That means that either the pilots really know how to conserve fuel, or one of the reports (fuel capacity or the report that it flew for 7 hours) is not true. Correct?

[InterpreDemon]

Well, if the original flight was to be 4-5 hours and they had at least an hour of reserve for an alternate, that would get you to five or six, and it's hard to imagine that they only carry an hour reserve when flying in that neck of the jungle with suitable airfields so few and far between, so seven hours planned duration under normal circumstances would be expected, IMO. Further, if no "landing phase" was intended (going to spike it into the ocean) much fuel can be saved as well, greatly extending the maximum endurance cruise speed time and range. Keep in mind that even the short range 777's have an endurance of around nine hours.

[JohnN]

I'm not sure I believe the spike it in the ocean theory any more. If you're going to crash the plane, why would you fly the plane for 7 hours? Why not just crash right when you get control of he plane?

[phil-s]

Malaysian sources today said the plane climbed to 45,000 ft before descending to 23,000. Service limit for a 777 is about 43,000. Is the plane actually flyable at 45,000? How close is it to stall and mach buffet?

[InterpreDemon]

John... my belief is it is a pilot suicide and he wants the wreckage to never be spotted by maritime traffic and the CVR never recovered, so you go as far as possible into the southern Indian Ocean, perhaps among the least frequently navigated places on the globe except for sailors trying to set round the world records.

As to the aircraft reaching FL450, I suspect not a problem for the aircraft but yes... something requiring a skilled pilot if not on autopilot, though safety systems may help avoid a stall. Ask a 777 driver.

[chrisatcc]

With the new info that the Transponder was turned off before the handoff to the next Viet controller, why did ATC not react to losing the transponder signal before he gave the handoff to next controller?

Was MH370 already out of radar range at the time? can we confirm that or not

[editorabc]

That is indeed what is being reported. If the transponder was turned off before the handoff...the controller should have immediately noticed that and challenged the aircraft. Makes no sense. But, then again, not much of this whole event has made sense.

Also still a mystery...if Malaysia authorities were aware of MH370 going off the grid...then why didn't they scramble aircraft to investigate the "unidentified blip" crossing their airspace, some time later? Again, makes no sense.

[InterpreDemon]

"why didn't they scramble aircraft to investigate the "unidentified blip" crossing their airspace"

Because the radar operators were inattentive, nodding off or stoned, or their superiors were inferior, so whatever story they fabricated after the fact about not being concerned about it and/or acting upon it at the time it is just CYA. It is obvious that their military was, has been, is, and always will be clueless.

[blakepilot]

I don't understand how it could have flown for 7 hours, if it only had enough fuel to fly for 4-5 hours. That means that either the pilots really know how to conserve fuel, or one of the reports (fuel capacity or the report that it flew for 7 hours) is not true. Correct?

The flight was 5.5 hours in length, plus ground time, plus a fuel reserve of usually an hour or more.  It could have easily had 7 hours worth of fuel.

[JohnN]

I didn't realize that the flight was originally planned as 5.5 hours. I was going by the reports that it had 4-5 hours of fuel. Now that you mention that the flight was supposed to be 5.5 hours, 7 hours of fuel makes more sense. 5 hours of fuel vs a 5 hour flight is a big difference.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[nick-mel]

If the southern track was taken, it may have wandered into the outer range of the Australian "Jindarlee" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jindalee_Operational_Radar_Network over the horizon RADAR network. It has an 'official' range of 3000km from the coast, but 'may' be more.
Hopefully someones asked Australia to check the tapes and hopefully the operational performance of Jindarlee isn't too sensitive to release any/some data they may have.