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Author Topic: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*  (Read 119024 times)

Offline mhawke

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #75 on: June 06, 2009, 09:04:42 AM »
Why haven't military submarines been deployed to locate the pinger on the Flight Data Recorder so that deep submersibles can do their stuff ?


I bet if it had a tonne of gold on it they would have found it by now...


As a former US submariner, I would guess that there are either some already there, or on the way.  But you will never hear about it.  Military submarine operations are never discussed, at least not until after the fact.

There is n better passive sonar system in the world then the one contained on a US fast attack submarine.  But it is still a huge task.

The area where the plane is surmised to be contains underwater mountain ranges that make the Rockies look like the great plains.  All that rock can block the sound from the pingers in the black boxes.  The military submarines will be of no help other then to "hear" the pingers.  There sonar is not made to bottom scan looking for objects, its made to find floating objects.

Look how long it took to find the Titanic.  We probably had better information about its general location then we do about the location of the Air France flight.

Offline atcman23

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #76 on: June 06, 2009, 11:35:13 AM »
Actman,

If the Spanish newspaper account is correct, an A340 (very similar plane) flew on the same track a few miles behind and a 747-400 flew 30 minutes prior.  They were avoiding the darkest clouds.  This appears to be standard procedure this time of year.

Questions I have:

1)  Why would AF447 not communicate with the Iberia plane and air traffic control?

2)  Why no Mayday or other communication?

3)  Why would they fly right into a storm when other traffic that night was flying around the storms?

I believe weather was the ultimate factor, but what lead to the lack of communication and the decision (if intentional) to fly into the terrible storms?  It is like a car that crashes into a tree.  Yes the tree did the damage, bu what lead to the trajectory toward the tree?

I realize this is pure, and probably misinformed, speculation at this point.

Both aircraft (A340 and B744) are much larger airplanes.  While the A340 is similar to the A330, it is much larger and has two more engines.  Larger airplanes can withstand more turbulence.  Neither aircraft reported any major weather conditions to ATC and the Air France crew may have thought that the weather ahead wasn't too bad.  It is possible that the onboard weather radar did not depict weather that was bad enough to warrant a deviation.  And if that was the case, it is possible that the weather conditions diminished rapidly. 

The Air France crew may not have been able to communicate with the Iberia flight.  That flight may have been on a different frequency.  Also, since it is controlled airspace, aircraft do not typically talk to each other.  On the oceanic flights, it is a bit more common than a typical domestic flight, but not something that is commonplace.

There was no mayday because it is not the crew's first responsibility to talk to ATC.  ATC does not fly the plane.  If they got caught in bad weather in a hurry, their first priority is to control the airplane, not contact ATC.  The common rule is "aviate, navigate, communicate."  That means, fly the plane, then figure out where you are or if you know, where you need to go, then talk.  From the sounds of it, and as I had mentioned in my prior post, things happened in a hurry and they may not have been able to communicate because their hands were already full.  Also, if the electrical systems failed early on, then they may not have been able to communicate at all.  We just don't know that information right now.

And for your last question, again we don't know.  Those other aircraft did not report bad weather conditions that are beyond "normal" for that region.  While they did deviate to go around some storms, perhaps their on board weather radar saw something different (maybe one end of the storm was more severe than the other).  They weren't going around the "darkest clouds" they were going around a storm that didn't look so great from their perspective.  Cloud color has nothing to do with severity.  And again, the Air France flight may not have been aware of the other two aircraft in the area, and they may have been on a different frequency.  The crew isn't concerned with the other aircraft flying in the same path as they as long as they're not going to hit each other.  We just don't know if those two craft were on the same frequency or not.  And the Iberia flight may have passed through that storm before it got intense.  Those tropical storms can get intense in a real big hurry and with no weather radar coverage in the middle of the ocean, we don't know how intense those storms really were.

Again, I think we're looking at a combination of bad weather conditions, which led up to some technical malfunctions, then a catastrophic event occurred.

And to answer another question by another poster, given certain conditions, yes an aircraft could break apart.  Those conditions are usually very very extreme and aircraft do not fly into those conditions intentionally.  A few bumps or even moderate turbulence isn't going to affect a commercial airliner in a fashion where the aircraft is just going to fall apart.  They are built to withstand extreme loads before they fail.  And if you did find yourself in extreme turbulence, you would probably be knocked unconscious before you knew what happened.  Around the Equator is a region known as the ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone).  This is where airmasses from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres collide and showers and thunderstorms develop.  This is common, but extreme turbulence conditions don't usually occur frequently and again, aircraft avoid severe and extreme turbulence as much as possible.  So I wouldn't freak out on your next flight to South America when you feel a bump or two.  If aircraft flew through nasty turbulence frequently, we would be hearing about aircraft accidents weekly.

Offline bjen9337

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #77 on: June 06, 2009, 12:21:46 PM »
Any UFO theories? (not intending to be sarcastic, but serious)

Offline atcman23

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #78 on: June 06, 2009, 01:29:41 PM »
Any UFO theories? (not intending to be sarcastic, but serious)

Are you actually serious??  And, no, nobody has mentioned any but it's only a matter of time now.

Offline Saabeba

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #79 on: June 06, 2009, 01:48:03 PM »
Thanks Actman.

I think the possibilities are:

1). The plane suffered an electrical failure, lost control.

2). The pilots decided to go into a storm that others avoided and Pitot tubes iced or lightning strikes led to bad instrument readings and disaster.

Offline blavatsky3

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #80 on: June 06, 2009, 06:06:18 PM »
Quote
Look how long it took to find the Titanic.  We probably had better information about its general location then we do about the location of the Air France flight.

Pardon me mhawke but I don't think Titanic was pinging like AF 447 is pinging !

Get real.

What about classified systems pinging using multiple subs to triangulate like we do with mobile phones.

Forgive me if you seem to be saying less than more.

If a military sub can't find something trying to be found then something is amiss.

Offline joeyb747

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #81 on: June 06, 2009, 07:01:22 PM »
Here is a vid link from my isp...it mentions bodies and other items found. It also references the speed sensors and the autopilot...

http://www.comcast.net/video/brazil-bodies-bag-from-doomed-air-france-jet/1144360489/Comcast/1143522048/

From Vid:

"Devices on the airplanes exterior that measure airspeed had not been replaced as recommended by Airbus." (ref 46 sec mark)


This would be the pitot tubes. So as far as the A330 being "safe"...you decide...if Airbus says "Hey, change this...I don't think they work right."...wouldn't that promp changing of the item? I think the A330 is plenty safe. I wouldn't avoid flying on one.

My Captain friend (type rated on A330-300 and B747-400) had this to say about the A330-300. And I quote: "That airplane scared the shit out of me in bad weather." He said it didn't handle severe turbulence well. Take it for what it's worth...just passing it on...
« Last Edit: June 06, 2009, 07:17:53 PM by joeyb747 »

Offline Saabeba

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #82 on: June 06, 2009, 07:24:56 PM »
From Telegraph article:

"the automated messages have revealed that all three external air speed sensors were giving different readings for the plane's velocity, diverging by up to 35 miles per hour – leaving pilots and on-board computer confused over what information to follow. "


I have read that standard operating procedure is to engage auto-pilot during stormy weather at altitude as the margin of safety to fly the plane is too difficult for manual control.  Still, the divergence is smaller than I would have thought.  I am not a pilot.

Offline atcman23

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #83 on: June 06, 2009, 08:27:01 PM »
Quote
What about classified systems pinging using multiple subs to triangulate like we do with mobile phones.

Forgive me if you seem to be saying less than more.

If a military sub can't find something trying to be found then something is amiss.

Submarines are not designed nor equipped to scan the ocean floor.  They are meant to scan the surface.  So, no, a submarine (nor three) wouldn't help find it plus you have to take into account that this aircraft crashed into a very treacherous part of the Atlantic where extremely high underwater mountains are present.  Sending in a military submarine would be another disaster waiting to happen.

Plus, mobile phones are an entirely different technology.

Offline avalon

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #84 on: June 06, 2009, 10:09:26 PM »
I've been listening to the archives for SBRF (JUN 01, 09) at @1400Z-1430Z to try and find any ATC references to AF 447.  So far the only interesting transmission I found was AA 980 traveling from SBRF to KMIA.  Just after takeoff ATC instructed AA 980 to climb to FL 340, direct LICOR.  AA 980 a few moments later called back and stated, "We'll have to stay a little left of course for the moment, some weather out on our right side. We'll proceed direct LICOR in about ah 20 miles"  

Much of the transmissions you'll hear is in Portuguese with the exception of the AA 980 transmissions and a few others.  So if you understand  Portuguese this archive might be interesting to you.

http://archive-server.liveatc.net/sbrf/SBRF2-Jun-01-2009-1430Z.mp3
« Last Edit: June 06, 2009, 10:14:52 PM by avalon »

Offline joeyb747

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #85 on: June 06, 2009, 11:09:30 PM »
From Telegraph article:

"the automated messages have revealed that all three external air speed sensors were giving different readings for the plane's velocity, diverging by up to 35 miles per hour – leaving pilots and on-board computer confused over what information to follow. "


I have read that standard operating procedure is to engage auto-pilot during stormy weather at altitude as the margin of safety to fly the plane is too difficult for manual control.  Still, the divergence is smaller than I would have thought.  I am not a pilot.

Per the video I linked to the autopilot was off...why?? Who knows...

Offline LeoBern

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #86 on: June 06, 2009, 11:36:28 PM »
Now that we've had a chance to go through the error messages one that hasnt gotten as much attention and has struck me as odd given its nature and timing in the chain of events was the TCAS antenna fault. Hopefully someone here can shed a little light on it. I have some thoughts but as they say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I've enclosed the following document that may helpful: http://www.a330jam.com/documents/systems.pdf

It does look like that previous 'drum' that was identified wasnt in fact part of the AF cargo so my previous question as to the logical explanation of it being found as part of the flight debris has been resolved. thx.

  
  
« Last Edit: June 07, 2009, 01:01:18 AM by LeoBern »

Offline Saabeba

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #87 on: June 06, 2009, 11:51:25 PM »

Per the video I linked to the autopilot was off...why?? Who knows...


"At 2:10 a.m. zulu, the autopilot was either switched off by the pilots or automatically. The function is switched off automatically if speed drops by some margin below a previously defined minimum."

I would guess that the auto-pilot either reached dangerously low airspeed and automatically disengaged or was so erratic the pilots turned it off.

Offline LeoBern

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #88 on: June 07, 2009, 01:13:18 AM »
From Telegraph article:

"the automated messages have revealed that all three external air speed sensors were giving different readings for the plane's velocity, diverging by up to 35 miles per hour – leaving pilots and on-board computer confused over what information to follow. "


I have read that standard operating procedure is to engage auto-pilot during stormy weather at altitude as the margin of safety to fly the plane is too difficult for manual control.  Still, the divergence is smaller than I would have thought.  I am not a pilot.

Per the video I linked to the autopilot was off...why?? Who knows...

It may be pressumptive but if the airspeed indicators/ADIRUs are giving differing readings might that also trigger the system to switch off autopilot regardless of manual interaction (or 'real' airspeed)?    
« Last Edit: June 07, 2009, 02:08:29 AM by LeoBern »

Offline Saabeba

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #89 on: June 07, 2009, 01:37:22 AM »
Nice summary article:

Air France 447: The computer crash -- The Times London

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6446268.ece

Offline blavatsky3

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #90 on: June 07, 2009, 06:10:06 AM »
Some notes I found on how the military did find a submerged plane...
Quote
The technique has paid off in the past. In 2007, the USNS Mary Sears used a towed underwater sonar to to locate the black boxes that were on board an Indonesian airliner that crashed on a domestic flight on January 1, 2007. The boxes for Adam Air Flight 574 - a Boeing 737 - were found at depths greater than 6,000 feet (1,800 meters).

http://trueslant.com/milesobrien/tag/cockpit-voice-recorder/

Offline joeyb747

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #91 on: June 07, 2009, 09:13:59 AM »
Here is another article:

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20090607/Brazil.Plane/

From article:

"Airbus recommended that all its airline customers replace instruments that help measure speed and altitude, known as Pitot tubes, on the A330, the model used for Flight 447, said Paul-Louis Arslanian, the head of the agency.

"They hadn't yet been replaced" on the plane that crashed, said Alain Bouillard, head of the French investigation."


And I find this odd...are there random airplane parts floating in the ocean???  :|

"A blue plane seat with a serial number on it has been recovered, but officials were still trying to confirm that it was a seat belonging to Flight 447, which disappeared in turbulent weather a week ago during a flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris with 228 people aboard."

Offline joeyb747

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #92 on: June 07, 2009, 12:45:50 PM »

Offline jedgar

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #93 on: June 07, 2009, 01:01:23 PM »
This whole thing reminds me of CVR 603. Every time I read a report or something on here, CVR 603 goes off in my head.

Offline aevins

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #94 on: June 07, 2009, 01:24:49 PM »
This whole thing reminds me of CVR 603. Every time I read a report or something on here, CVR 603 goes off in my head.

I agree, it's also similar to Air India 182 and somewhat of the immediate aftermath of South African Airways 295, but the airspeed discrepancy is much more reminiscent of Birgenair Flight 301, which was very similar to CVR603.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2009, 01:27:51 PM by aevins »

Offline joeyb747

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #95 on: June 07, 2009, 08:08:42 PM »
This whole thing reminds me of CVR 603. Every time I read a report or something on here, CVR 603 goes off in my head.

I agree, it's also similar to Air India 182 and somewhat of the immediate aftermath of South African Airways 295, but the airspeed discrepancy is much more reminiscent of Birgenair Flight 301, which was very similar to CVR603.

Agreed. Very similar to Birgenair 301.

Here is the latest: A total of 15 bodies were found today, with 2 found yesterday, that's 17 so far.

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20090607/Brazil.Plane/

Offline BRAVO2ZERO

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #96 on: June 08, 2009, 11:49:39 AM »
Has anyone considered the possibility of this aircraft flying through a supercell at approx 35,000 ft, 20,000ft below the storm top hitting baseball size hail at 700 mph. Could this smash the cabin, decompress the aircraft a systematically disintegrate it?

Offline atcman23

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #97 on: June 08, 2009, 12:11:14 PM »
No, the cabin windows can withstand much greater force than that.  Plus, these storms aren't the typical Midwest storms you see in the U.S.  Tropical systems rarely contain hail.  And it is likely that these storms did not have hail.  Of course, we don't know that, but normal tropical thunderstorms do not produce much hail.  Also, supercell type thunderstorms don't usually form along the Equator.  There are only a few spots in the world where supercell thunderstorms form.

Offline avalon

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #98 on: June 08, 2009, 01:06:36 PM »
Air France Union Demands A330 Upgrades Before Flights

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8dY0m8FTZkI

Offline avalon

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Re: *Air France jet missing over Atlantic*
« Reply #99 on: June 08, 2009, 01:55:30 PM »
Air France tail found; US helps hunt black boxes

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20090607/Brazil.Plane/